By
Melissa Agar
It’s
finally here – the night I’ve been anxiously awaiting for weeks.
Oscar Night is my Super Bowl/World Series/Olympics all rolled up into
one bloated, borderline smug ceremony. I’ll spend Sunday curled up
on my couch with my ballot, waiting to see how many obscure
categories I was able to call and how many times I miss the mark.
I’ll giggle along with Ellen, miss the pre-show Barbra Walters
special, and get to bed much later than I probably should, but it’s
worth it to spend the evening celebrating something I love –
movies.
And
so here are my predictions for the top categories this year. I’ve
listed both who/what I think will win and also who/what I
would vote for if I were a member of the Academy (if only!). Perhaps
this will give you a leg-up in your own Oscar pool, but I accept no
responsibility if I sink you completely! (Full disclosure: my record
is pretty decent, although this is a particularly tough year.)
BEST
PICTURE
The
Wolf of Wall Street
American
Hustle
Nebraska
Captain
Phillips
Philomena
Dallas
Buyers Club
12
Years a Slave
Gravity
Her
WHO
WILL WIN: My gut tells me that 12 Years a
Slave has it in the bag and probably has since its release
last fall. It is a solid film, to be sure, and will lend a little bit
of gravitas to the evening.
WHO
SHOULD WIN: Confession time: I wasn’t that
crazy about 12 Years a Slave. While the film has some
very solid performances, it also had tremendous pacing issues that
dampened the overall emotional heft of the film. Of course, I still
wept like a baby when Solomon Northup (Chiwetel Ejiofor) was reunited
with his family after 12 years, but the movie did such a poor
job of handling the passage of time that it sort of felt like 12 days
rather than 12 years. (Thank goodness for a little grey hairspray to
make Northup look older!) If I were voting for best film, then, I
would cast my ballot for American Hustle. It’s a smart,
funny, energetic film that kept me engaged from start to finish. It
manages to be both a throwback to Hollywood’s golden era of the
1970s and yet still totally fresh and modern.
BEST
ACTOR
Christian
Bale, American Hustle
Bruce
Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo
DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel
Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew
McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
WHO
WILL WIN: This seems to be a two-man race between
Ejiofor and McConaughey with DiCapario as a possible spoiler based
largely on the groundswell of social media support clamoring for Leo
to finally win an Oscar. Ultimately, though, my gut tells me that
Ejiofor will walk away with the trophy Sunday night. He gives a
powerful, understated performance that drives 12 Years a
Slave.
WHO
SHOULD WIN: As much as I liked Ejiofor’s
performance in 12 Years a Slave (my issues with the
film had nothing to do with his performance whatsoever, and his
performance actually made me like the film more than I maybe would
have), I would cast my vote for McConaughey. This has nothing to do
with my nearly 20-year adoration of the normally handsome actor but
rather a total appreciation for the risk he took to break from that
rom-com stoner vibe he allowed his career to fall into and to prove
that he can actually act. His performance in Dallas Buyers Club is
staggering to behold – painful, conflicted, and tremendous. He
finds the many shades in Ron Woodroof – both sympathetic and
unlikable. It’s a masterful performance.
BEST
ACTRESS
Amy
Adams, American Hustle
Cate
Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra
Bullock, Gravity
Judi
Dench, Philomena
Meryl
Streep, August: Osage County
WHO
WILL WIN: This seems like one of the more
wide-open categories this season, although Blanchett has won many of
the pre-Oscar awards, including the Golden Globe last month. The
question becomes whether or not the renewal of the Woody Allen-Mia
Farrow feud/accusations will result in Blanchett becoming collateral
damage. Will a Blanchett win become a tacit Hollywood endorsement of
Allen? Or am I overthinking this whole thing? I’m putting my
money on Blanchett largely because I also think that she SHOULD
WIN as well. Her brittle, damaged Jasmine was a
thing of beauty on screen and doesn’t deserve to be mixed up in a
decades old scandal. If the backlash affects Blanchett, though, I
suspect Bullock will get her second Oscar for her work in Gravity.
Her work there is lovely, particularly when you consider how much of
it is spent alone.
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Barkhad
Abdi, Captain Phillips
Bradley
Cooper, American Hustle
Michael
Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Jonah
Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared
Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
WHO
WILL WIN: Leto has largely swept the pre-Oscar
awards, and he’ll conclude the season with another win. His
performance provides Dallas Buyers Club with large amounts
of its heart, and his sensitive, drug addicted Rayon is a masterful
performance worthy of all the accolades.
WHO
SHOULD WIN: I’d cast my vote for Leto, too,
although I really loved Hill’s work in Wolf. I have a
feeling that guy’s time is coming eventually.
BEST
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Sally
Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Jennifer
Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita
Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia
Roberts, August: Osage County
June
Squibb, Nebraska
WHO
WILL WIN: While this may seem like a two-woman
race between Lawrence and Nyong’o, I have a feeling the Academy
will go with the newcomer, particularly since Lawrence just won last
year. Nyong’o is a newcomer, and the Academy loves to reward that,
too. Her performance helps underscore the brutality of 12
Years a Slave and is the one you cannot forget after seeing
the film. Even if the Academy doesn’t reward the film in the other
major categories, I suspect this is the place where they can’t
ignore the film.
WHO
SHOULD WIN: As much as I admired Nyong’o’s
work in 12 Years a Slave, I have to say that I would cast
my vote for Lawrence. Her work in American Hustle was
exhilarating and haunting and something I’m still talking about
months later.
BEST
DIRECTOR
David
O. Russell, American Hustle
Alfonso
Cuaron, Gravity
Alexander
Payne, Nebraska
Steve
McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Martin
Scorcese, The Wolf of Wall Street
WHO
WILL WIN: There are some pretty impressive names
and some pretty impressive films on this list this year. I suspect
that many will go down as some of the best films of this decade. The
work that Cuaron did in Gravity, though, is something in
a class by itself. He brought outer space to life in a way that has
never really been done before. The film is largely a
directorial feat. He will win because he SHOULD
WIN.
BEST
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
American
Hustle
Blue
Jasmine
Dallas
Buyers Club
Her
Nebraska
WHO
WILL WIN: This is where American
Hustle has the best shot at a big ticket Oscar. Screenplay
is often where the Academy rewards films that may be too “edgy”
to take home Best Picture. This is the bone that was tossed to Pulp
Fiction, Fargo, The Usual Suspects, Almost Famous, Little Miss
Sunshine – all films that should have been stronger
contenders for Best Picture but were too indy or niche for the wider
Academy demographic. It’s a decent consolation prize for Russell as
he bides his time for greater Oscar glory.
WHO
SHOULD WIN: As much as I love American
Hustle (and I do – I stand by my assertion that it was the
best film of 2013), I would cast my vote for Her. Spike
Jonze is a visionary, creative voice in contemporary American cinema,
and it’s time for the Academy to recognize that. Her is
a truly creative script – the very definition of “original.”
BEST
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Before
Midnight
Captain
Phillips
Philomena
12
Years a Slave
The
Wolf of Wall Street
WHO
WILL WIN: With 12 Years a Slave being
a frontrunner for best picture, you have to think it is the
frontrunner here, too. I don’t know how much my pacing complaints
have to do with the script (and I may be the only one who has them),
and there were some flashback elements that I found a little
disconcerting, but this is a way for the Academy to recognize an
important film.
WHO
SHOULD WIN: I
would not cast my vote for 12
Years.
I do think that a lot of my issues with the film are largely rooted
in the script – the pacing, the flashback, the muddy exposition,
characters who appear with little explanation and then disappear with
a sense that we should care but can’t because we’re still trying
to figure out who they are. (Wow – the longer I write this article,
the less I like 12
Years a Slave.)
This year was a much stronger year for original screenplays, although
there are some strong films on this list. I was amongst the group of
critics who liked and admired The
Wolf of Wall Street and
a lot of that affection lies with the script that was sardonic,
ironic, and flat out funny. That’s where I would cast my vote,
although there would be something beautiful about Richard Linklater,
Ethan Hawke, and Julie Delpy finally getting some recognition for
their lovely Before trilogy.
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